Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
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Trump's China Comments Send Gold Toward Record Territory
Gold prices climbed toward historic highs, trading near $2,770 per ounce as President Trump's softened stance on China tariffs triggered a dollar decline. In a Fox News interview, Trump expressed reluctance to impose levies on China, causing the dollar to drop 0.7% and making gold more attractive to international buyers. The precious metal has gained nearly 3% this week, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty surrounding the new administration's policies. While Trump's comments on European tariffs and calls for immediate interest rate cuts added complexity to the market outlook, UBS strategist Joni Teves suggests investors will likely maintain gold positions as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier, even during periods of dollar strength. The metal's trajectory has been supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchasing, with traders now monitoring how Trump's domestic agenda might impact inflation and monetary policy.
READ MOREGold Nears Peak as Trump Pressures Fed on Rates
Gold prices continued their upward momentum, reaching $2,774.19 per ounce and approaching their October record of $2,790.15, driven by President Trump's demands for immediate interest rate cuts and his softened stance on China trade tariffs. The precious metal's fourth straight weekly gain coincides with the dollar hitting a one-month low, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers. Speaking at the World Economic Forum, Trump's comments on monetary policy and trade have reinforced gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Independent analyst Ross Norman forecasts gold reaching $3,175 in 2025, while the broader precious metals market shows strength with silver, palladium, and platinum all positioned for weekly gains. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and potential new sanctions on Russia could further influence market dynamics, particularly for palladium given Russia's significant role in production.
READ MOREIncrementum: Gold/Ski Pass Ratio Hits All-Time High in 2024
The 2024/25 ski season marks a historic moment for the gold/ski pass ratio, with one ounce of gold now buying 35.2 day passes, up 27.5% from last year's 27.6 passes. While ski pass prices continued their above-inflation trend with a 6% increase, gold's 35.6% surge in 2024 has made skiing remarkably affordable for gold investors. This represents the most favorable ratio in over three decades, surpassing the previous record of 29 passes per ounce in 2012/13. The current ratio shows dramatic improvement from 1998/99 when an ounce of gold purchased only 8.5 passes, reflecting gold's average annual appreciation of 6.8% over this period.
READ MORENigeria's Currency Reform Creates Investment Opening, Says Bank Chief
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Cardoso is promoting investment opportunities created by recent currency reforms, which led to a 41% naira depreciation in 2023. Since his appointment in September 2023, the central bank has implemented aggressive measures including an 875 basis point rate hike to 27.5%, cleared forex backlogs, and restructured exchange rate policies. These reforms attracted over $6 billion in foreign investment last year, with analysts at Deutsche Bank projecting naira stabilization at 1,500 to the dollar. The bank plans additional reforms in 2024, including new forex codes to ensure market transparency.
READ MOREGold Rises to 4-Month High on Trump Trade Tensions
Gold prices climbed to four-month highs, reaching $2,757.10 as investors digest President Trump's widening trade threats against China and the EU, following similar measures targeting Canada and Mexico. The precious metal's rally reflects growing safe-haven demand amid concerns that Trump's trade and immigration policies could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed's monetary easing strategy. Gold's momentum builds on last year's record performance, which was driven by Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases.
READ MORETreasury's Inflation-Protected Bond Sale Nears 15-Year Yield High
The Treasury's upcoming $20 billion 10-year TIPS auction is set to yield around 2.25%, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Unlike 2008's liquidity-driven yield spike, current levels reflect robust economic conditions and fiscal outlook concerns. The previous TIPS auction in December showed weakening demand, with yields settling seven basis points above expectations. Market dynamics have evolved significantly since 2008, with the TIPS market now three times larger and supported by more long-term investors and proactive Fed intervention policies.
READ MORETurkish Bank Changes Course on Inflation Metrics, Cuts Rates
Turkey's central bank delivered another 250 basis point cut to its key interest rate, lowering it to 45% while signaling more reductions ahead. The bank altered its policy framework by removing monthly inflation metrics from its decision-making criteria, focusing instead on expected and realized inflation trends. Despite inflation running at 44.4% in December, markets project a decline to 27% by year-end, though this remains above the central bank's 21% target. The challenge lies in balancing growth support - as Turkey faces technical recession - with managing inflation expectations, which currently exceed official projections.
READ MOREMarket Sentiment Flips as Volatility Funds Eye $40B Stock Buy
A significant market sentiment shift is underway as investors move from defensive hedging to bullish positioning, according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott. With the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs, volatility-controlled funds are expected to purchase approximately $40 billion in S&P 500 futures as market volatility has dramatically decreased, with five-day realized volatility dropping from 22.2 to 8.7. This repositioning has driven increased interest in Big Tech, AI, semiconductors, small-caps, and gold. However, McElligott warns that aggressive positioning by these funds could lead to market instability rather than steady gains.
READ MOREMexican Inflation Drop Tests Banxico's Rate Cut Strategy
Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, beating expectations and continuing its downward trend from December's 3.99%. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices offset rising energy costs. Banxico, having cut rates by 25bps for four consecutive meetings to 10%, now faces a critical decision between maintaining its cautious approach or accelerating cuts. The decision is complicated by potential US tariffs and economic headwinds, with analysts split between expectations of a 25bp or 50bp cut at the February 6 meeting. Citi's survey shows 17 of 30 economists favoring a quarter-point reduction to 9.75%, while 13 predict a half-point cut to 9.5%.
READ MOREMexican Inflation Eases as Banxico Weighs Bolder Rate Cuts
Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, below both expectations and December's 3.99% rate, as Banxico weighs accelerating its monetary easing cycle. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices helped counter an 0.82% surge in energy costs. Despite the favorable inflation data, some central bank officials remain cautious about larger rate cuts due to uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs and Fed policy. Market expectations are split, with 17 of 30 economists forecasting a quarter-point cut to 9.75% in February, while 13 predict a half-point reduction to 9.5%.
READ MOREGold Retreats from 3-Month High as Trump's Trade Policies Take Shape
Gold prices pulled back 0.4% to $2,744.49/oz following a three-month peak, with technical indicators suggesting an overbought position as the RSI reaches 64. Markets are digesting President Trump's proposed tariffs - 25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and potential levies on European imports starting February 1. The precious metal's trajectory toward $3,000 remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, including Trump's threats of sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. The Fed's upcoming January meeting adds another dimension, though rates are expected to hold steady with 96% probability.
READ MOREGold Rally Pauses as Markets Eye US Jobs Data, Trade Policy
Gold prices pulled back marginally from recent highs but maintain strong momentum, trading at $2,750/oz - just $40 shy of all-time records and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's proposed trade tariffs targeting major trading partners, while also awaiting US jobless claims data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy. The precious metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchasing, and the Fed's shift to rate cuts. Trump's domestic policies, including tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could further support gold prices by potentially impacting growth and inflation dynamics.
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10 Bold Predictions for 2025: A Must-Watch Macro Outlook - Alan Hibbard w/ Laurent Lequeu
Are we on the brink of a major economic shift? In this insightful interview, Alan Hibbard sits down with macro strategist Laurent Lequeu
READ MOREAnalysts: Trump's Trade Policy Could Push Gas Prices Higher
Despite President Trump's promises to lower gas prices, analysts predict prices could rise significantly due to seasonal factors and proposed tariffs. Seasonal factors, including refinery maintenance and summer-blend transition, could push prices up 25-75 cents per gallon by spring. Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could further increase prices, especially in the Midwest, where Canadian oil imports are crucial for refineries. Additionally, his pledge to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right to the top" could tighten oil supplies and boost prices. Industry experts note that despite Trump's "drill, baby, drill" agenda, oil companies remain focused on shareholder returns rather than increasing production, and current U.S. oil output is already at record levels.
READ MOREGold Breaks Free: Technical Breakout Targets $2,800
Gold has emerged from its December wedge pattern with strong bullish momentum following the U.S. presidential transition. The precious metal has decisively broken above significant resistance at $2,721, marking an end to its recent period of indecision and stagnation. Technical analysis, supported by MACD momentum indicators, suggests a healthy uptrend with $2,800 as the next major target. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain and strong resistance may emerge at higher levels, traders are actively seeking entry opportunities on both daily and 4-hour timeframes during any potential pullbacks.
READ MOREDollar Weakness Propels Gold Toward $2,800 Milestone
Gold prices are approaching record highs as markets react positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariffs in his first days in office. Despite campaign promises, Trump's first 24 hours in office have been marked by a more gradual approach to tariffs, with targeted threats rather than immediate universal implementation. This measured stance has weakened the US dollar, benefiting gold prices which have broken above key resistance at $2,715-20. Technical analysis suggests bullish momentum following a breakout from a November-December symmetrical triangle pattern, positioning the metal for a potential test of record highs near $2,790 or even $2,800+. However, a drop below $2,715 could trigger a pullback toward the 100-day moving average around $2,650.
READ MOREOil Stable as Markets Weigh Trump's Tariffs and Energy Plans
Oil markets held steady on Wednesday as traders assess multiple factors affecting global energy markets. President Trump's proposed tariffs - 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports starting February 1 - have shifted market focus from Russian sanctions to potential trade policy impacts. Additionally, Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency and plans to maximize domestic production have yet to significantly influence prices. Meanwhile, operational disruptions from severe winter weather affected Motiva's Port Arthur complex and reduced North Dakota's oil production by 130,000-160,000 barrels per day.
READ MOREMortgage Rates Break Six-Week Climb as Treasury Yields Ease
US mortgage rates experienced their first decline in six weeks, falling 7 basis points to 7.02%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest data. The decrease has helped sustain home purchase applications at their highest level in a year, with the purchase index rising 0.6%. The drop in rates mirrors falling Treasury yields, sparked by encouraging inflation data that strengthened expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The trend could continue as markets respond positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariff implementation in his first days in office. However, refinancing activity showed a contrasting trend, declining 2.9% during the same period.
READ MOREMining Industry Unfazed by Trump's EV Policy Rollback
Despite Trump's rollback of US electric vehicle targets, industry experts remain optimistic about critical minerals demand, citing strong global EV growth, particularly in China. While the policy change affected stock prices of automotive, battery, and mining companies, analysts emphasize that global EV adoption continues to accelerate, particularly in China, which dominates with 65% of the market. Industry leaders, including Liontown Resources CEO Antonino Ottaviano, maintain their bullish outlook, noting that markets outside North America are growing at 27% annually and could soon surpass the entire North American market. The resilience of global demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is expected to offset any potential slowdown in US EV adoption resulting from Trump's policy changes.
READ MOREAllianz: Traditional Gold Drivers Give Way to New Forces
Gold's traditional market drivers are evolving, with fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks replacing historical factors like US dollar weakness and real yields. The precious metal has demonstrated remarkable strength, outperforming other major asset classes since late 2022, despite economic conditions that typically favor riskier assets. Looking ahead to 2025, gold's outlook remains positive, driven by structural shifts including mounting fiscal deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank purchases amid de-dollarization efforts. While temporary setbacks may occur due to profit-taking or dollar strength, these factors are unlikely to derail gold's long-term upward trajectory. The metal's recent performance reinforces its role as a crucial tool for portfolio diversification, particularly as traditional safe-haven assets like Treasuries lose their appeal.
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